Can Ovechkin catch Gretzky? NHL’s new Mr. 700 has a chance
Alex Ovechkin is making the seemingly impossible appear to be not so far-fetched after all.
Wayne Gretzky’s 894 career goals has, for decades, loomed as one of hockey’s most untouchable records. The “Great One” set the bar so high it appeared out of reach for even the NHL’s best scorers.
Ovechkin, on Saturday, became the second-fastest and second-youngest player to reach 700 goals behind only Gretzky. Because he’s only 34 and shows no signs of slowing down, belief is growing that Ovechkin can challenge Gretzky’s mark.
“Alex is going to score another probably 150 goals, maybe more, before he retires,” Hall of Famer and fellow 700 goal-scorer Phil Esposito said. “He’s got a chance to catch Wayne. There’s no doubt about that.”
Gretzky scored his 894 goals in 1,487 games over a 20-year career with the Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, St. Louis Blues and New York Rangers. A vast majority of his goals came during the sport’s highest-scoring era, and Gretzky reached 40 in a season for the last time at age 30.
Ovechkin is in the midst of his fifth 40-goal season since turning 30. Last season, he became the oldest to win the goal-scoring title since Esposito in 1974-75, and he’s on pace for 57 this year.
“I think he’ll score 50 until he’s 50 years old it seems like,” Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon said. “I never thought (catching Gretzky) would happen. I hope he can get close.”
Ovechkin is under contract through next season and would likely need to play four more seasons to take a legitimate shot at the mileston. Longtime running mate Nicklas Backstrom just signed on for five more years, so it’s not impossible to think Ovechkin stays around long term.
Asked what Ovechkin needs to do to approach Gretzky’s record, Esposito said: “Stay with the Washington Capitals. Stay with a good team.” They’d sure like that.
“He loves to score and continues to bring that to rink every day,” Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan said. “I think he’s energized by seeing where he can finish in the top 10, and it’s kind of fun to watch an older guy keep it going like he has.”
Gretzky recently told NHL.com he’s rooting for Ovechkin to break his record, with staying healthy and playing on a good team the two necessary ingredients. Ovechkin has been one of the most durable players in hockey during his career, and the Capitals could extend their run of contending for several more years.
“The guy’s missed 17 games in 15 years due to injury — that’s freaking incredible,” former player and executive-turned NHL Network analyst Brian Lawton said. “They have a quality team that has staying power. He’s going to get three or four more years of being on an elite team.”
Backstrom, center Evgeny Kuznetsov and defenseman John Carlson are all signed long term after winning the Stanley Cup with Ovechkin in 2018. Wrapping up his playing days back home in Russia could be alluring to Ovechkin, so it’s unclear how many more years he wants to remain in the NHL.
“It just depends on how long he wants to play,” said Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who allowed Ovechkin’s 600th goal. “You know he’s going to put up anywhere from 40 to 50 goals a year, and he’s going to be dangerous no matter what his age is or what his team’s like. You know he’s got a phenomenal team around him, and you know he’s just going to continue to beat goalies.”
Ovechkin wasn’t always scoring at this pace. At the low point of his career, he scored 32 goals in 2010-11 and 38 in 2011-12 before Washington bowed out in the second round of the playoffs.
An elite NHL goal-scorer’s prime usually ends in his mid-20s, and doubt crept in that the same would happen to Ovechkin. Not so fast.
“I think everyone halfway through his career would’ve said, no, he’s going to tail off at some point,” Calgary Flames captain Mark Giordano said. “But he hasn’t stopped, so he has a chance.”
Two-time NHL leading scorer Connor McDavid grew up watching Ovechkin play plenty against his idol, Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby, and has been impressed with the consistency of the goals piling up.
“He just seems ageless and just keeps on scoring goals,” McDavid said. “I don’t see any reason he can’t keep doing that.”
The desire is still there. Veteran coach Todd McLellan enjoys watching Ovechkin’s excitement for scoring goals — except against his own team — and because of that is hoping he cracks 894.
“It’s great for our game to see him,” McLellan said. “As long as that excitement stays there, he’s still going to have the skill and the shot. He’s going to have a great team around him. I think he can do it.”
Lawton has run the numbers and can’t imagine Ovechkin not breaking Gretzky’s record. He’s conservatively predicting a 55-goal season, which would mean Ovechkin at his career rate needs to play roughly 300 more games to get close.
“Alex is in a completely different position (than Gretzky),” Lawton said. “Back then, players, we didn’t know and understand as much about nutrition and training as we do today. ... Overall, looking in the future, I just don’t see there’s any way how he doesn’t break it.”
Boston’s David Pastrnak, who is currently neck-and-neck with Ovechkin and Toronto’s Auston Matthews in the goal-scoring race and might one day be the NHL’s next 700-goal scorer, “can’t really see” Gretzky’s record being broken. Pastrnak thinks Ovechkin will join Gretzky and Gordie Howe by surpassing 800, though Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy wonders about the goals beyond that.
“I think health-wise will determine that,” Cassidy said. “If he can stay healthy to at least 38, 39, 40, I don’t see why he won’t at least push up against it.”
Ovechkin is already in elite company in the 700 club with Gretzky, Howe, Jaromir Jagr, Brett Hull, Marcel Dionne, Esposito and Mike Gartner. He recently climbed past Mario Lemieux, Steve Yzerman and Mark Messier on the all-time list.
Yzerman closed a video message for passing him to Ovechkin by saying, “If you ever do break Wayne Gretzky’s all time record for the most goals in the league, after watching your Stanley Cup celebrations, I want to be invited to your party.”
Perhaps Ovechkin would party like it’s 2018, and it would possibly be an accomplishment that’s never matched again.
Follow AP Hockey Writer Stephen Whyno on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SWhyno
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