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Dueling DFSers: Can Nelson thrive with Hundley at QB?

November 11, 2017 GMT

PHERSY: Nate Dogg, you’re on a serious roll right now. I should just back away from the column and let you write the whole thing. Of course, it seems like you never give out the good advice here, keeping all your money picks to yourself (OK, except for T.Y. Hilton, who helped many of my lineups). Rude. Anyway, congratulations to you for finding the cash again last week, Nate Dogg. I guess it’s time for me to get serious. What an odd, high-scoring week. I was away from my phone most of the day ON Sunday. I logged in that night and noticed I scored more than 140 points with almost all of my lineups, yet not a single one was in the money. That’s a brutal, brutal week, but that’s DFS.

MUST-PLAY OF THE WEEK

PHERSY: Nate Dogg, this seems odd to say/type, but it’ll be hard for me to avoid Matt Stafford this week. He’s just $6,800, and he’s set for a matchup against the lowly Browns. Oddly enough, the Browns have been solid against the run this season, but they’ve struggled against the pass, allowing nearly 230 yards passing per game (17th in the NFL). This game also will be played on the turf in Detroit, and that’s enough for me to make Stafford my highest-owned quarterback of the weekend.

NATE DOGG: Phersy, I am almost certain you’re spot on about Stafford. Speaking of certainties, what’s more certain than death, taxes and the Rams giving it up in gobs on the ground? That’s right. Nothing. This week, the Rams face Houston and Lamar Miller ($5,200) who is priced absurdly for the workload he’s going to get. The Texans have Tom Savage running the show now with DeShaun Watson out, and the load will likely fall heavily upon Miller. In Week 9′s game against the Colts, Miller only had 10 carries but managed 57 yards and caught three balls for 34 yards. I see that game getting nutty, and Miller is likely going to get some fantasy yum-yum. Trust the workload, trust the Rams being bad against opposing run games, and trust that Bill O’Brien is saying “hell no” to Savage chucking it.

CHEAP PLAY OF THE WEEK

PHERSY: Nate Dogg, I expected more out of Miller last week against the worst run defense around (Colts), and he didn’t deliver for me (see my 22nd-place finish). Of course, I have a long history of playing a guy in a week he makes sense and having him go off the following week ... so maybe you’re on to something here. ... Nate, I badly want to use Kelvin Benjamin this week. He’s just $5,100, which is crazy. But, Benjamin likely will draw Saints corner Marshon Lattimore, who’s quickly become one of the best corners in the league. He’s a serious rookie of the year candidate, and in my eyes, he’s the front-runner, so I can’t use Benjamin this week. Instead, I’ll go with Mohamed Sanu. He’s just $5,100 and he’s facing the Cowboys, who are giving up loads of points to wide receivers. With Julio Jones struggling, someone has to catch passes from Matt Ryan. It’s also a pivotal moment for the Falcons; they must win to stay relevant in the NFC. So, I’m betting guys like Sanu step up in a big spot.

NATE DOGG: I think you’re onto something there with the Ryan-Sanu hookup (a great GPP stack this week). Look at that. No. No. Keep scrolling. Keep looking. That guy at $5,300. Yeah that J. Nelson guy. Click the plus sign next to him. What’s that you say.? You don’t want Arizona’s J.J. Nelson? No worries. That guy you just clicked, that’s the OTHER Nelson. Jordy. Yeah, I know, I’m shocked, too. What in the world is Jordy Nelson doing at $5,300, you ask? I have no clue, but if DraftKings is going to give me another play like T.Y. Hilton again this week, I’m taking it. The hate has simply gone too far. Take that price decrease for such a talented wideout and keep it on the down low (I think that’s what the kids are saying these days still).

AVOID AT ALL COSTS

PHERSY: Oh, is Aaron Rodgers coming back this week? Oh, are the Packers playing a bad pass defense this week? The answer to both questions is no, which should explain why Nelson is priced at $5,300. The Bears are ranked No. 10 at defending receivers this season, and this game will be played outside in the Windy City in November. And Brett Hundley is still the QB throwing Nelson the ball. I’d put him much closer to an “avoid at all costs” play than someone I want in several lineups. But hey, what do I know, Nate Dogg? You’re the one who keeps finding the cash. ... Nate Dogg, I will not be paying up for Mark Ingram this week. The Bills have a solid run defense, and Ingram’s price has blown up to $7,400. Yes, on the road outdoors in Buffalo, the Saints will need to rely on their running game, but I don’t think the Bills will allow Ingram much room to operate. If he was priced in the 6K range, I’d consider him playable, but not at $7,400.

NATE DOGG: Hundley is basically a tad better than a train wreck, but we’ve seen worse QBs do OK. Nelson’s talent just far outweighs his price tag, making him a great tourney play. As much as I like that play, I’m struggling to find a defiant standpoint on a guy I’m just completely hitting with the nah wave. Pricing is so tight this week, but it’s pretty accurate. While I don’t feel overly confident about fading such a top-tier talent in a cush matchup, I’m going to take a stand and say get away from Antonio Brown at $9,500. The Steelers take on the Colts in Indy this weekend. The likelihood of this game remaining competitive is slim, and when the Steelers are ahead, they pound the rock. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has notable struggles outside of Heinz Field, and with the game likely going to be out of hand by halftime, the game script says fade Brown (for the record I’m wincing while writing these words).

THE CONTEST

PHERSY: Congrats to Brunoruno for putting up a whopping 176 points to secure top prize in last week’s contest. Abalonenads was second, and Nate Dogg claimed third. Gosixersgo76 and jsac631 also finished in the money. ... The contest is back again this week. Each week, Nate Dogg and I create a contest on DraftKings, and you’re all invited. Jump in and take our money. We don’t mind. If you’re on DraftKings, search for my username (phersy123) or hit me up on Twitter or email and ask for an invite. It’s just $10, with five places paid out. Good luck to everyone!