New Poll: Biden Leads In Michigan On Eve Of Primary Despite Key Weaknesses
DENVER, March 9, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- According to a new survey by ROI Rocket, a leading provider of market research-based consulting services, former vice president Joe Biden is on track to win about 55% of the Democratic primary vote in Michigan compared to about 45% for Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vermont). The Michigan primary offers the largest delegate haul in the immediate aftermath of Super Tuesday.
ROI Rocket’s proprietary Voter Decision Model (VDM) indicates Biden’s appeal rests mainly on his political and personal backgrounds rather than his policy positions or personal style. A majority of Democrats and Independents voting in tomorrow’s Michigan primary find his record as a lifelong Democrat and, more importantly, his tenure in the Obama administration, persuasive.
Support for Biden is broad and shallow while support for Sanders is narrow and deep. The senator from Vermont outperforms Biden on measures of voter enthusiasm and excitement. He also tops Biden in terms of the appeal of his policy positions on healthcare, income inequality and climate change—the three policy areas of greatest importance to Democratic primary voters. Still, among likely Michigan primary voters, Biden seems to be the most acceptable option.
Looking ahead to the general election, if Biden is the nominee, about 84% of Sanders supporters indicate they’ll vote for him. Among those indicating otherwise, about 7% say they’ll vote for a third party candidate and another 7% report they won’t vote at all.
On the flipside, if Sanders is the nominee, about 80% of Biden supporters say they’ll vote for him but fully 9% suggest they’ll vote for President Donald J. Trump and another 8% say they’ll vote for a third party candidate.
ABOUT THIS RESEARCH
This study of 1,000 likely Michigan primary voters was fielded between March 4 and March 8, 2019. The results have an associated margin of error of +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level in the most conservative case. This means the results come within plus or minus 3.1% of the results that would have been obtained given a census of all qualified individuals.
To qualify for this research, respondents were required to be registered voters likely to participate in Michigan’s Democratic primary. Sample collection was balanced to Michigan-specific U.S. Census numbers for gender, age, ethnicity and urban/suburban/rural residency. We also established minimum quotas based on party identification and weighted the results in terms of key demographics and party membership.
ABOUT ROI ROCKET
Founded in 2007, ROI Rocket is a leading provider of full-service market research, marketing and sales automation, and digital agency support with offices in Denver, CO, Vancouver, WA, and Jacksonville, FL.
SOURCE ROI Rocket