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Midwest economy: October state-by-state glance

November 1, 2019 GMT

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates growth in that factor over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results for October:

Arkansas: The state’s overall index jumped to 53.4 from September’s 48.3. Index components were new orders at 59.2, production or sales at 57.9, delivery lead time at 49.2, inventories at 49.7 and employment at 51.2. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to slow but remain positive, and hourly wage growth to decline to an annualized range of 3.5%-4.0% through the first quarter of 2020,” Goss said.

Iowa: After two straight months of below growth neutral readings for Iowa, the state’s overall index climbed to 53.5 in October from September’s 49.6. Index components were new orders at 59.3, production or sales at 57.9, delivery lead time at 49.2, employment at 51.2 and inventories at 49.8. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to slow but remain positive and hourly wage growth to continue at its current solid pace through the first quarter of 2020,” he said.

Kansas: The Kansas overall index rose to 54.6 last month from 51.1 in September. Index components were new orders at 62.0, production or sales at 56.9, delivery lead time at 50.0, employment at 52.8 and inventories at 51.3. The manufacturing sector has boosted jobs by 0.9% over the past 12 months and hourly wages by 1.4%. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to remain at its current pace, and hourly wage growth to expand above its current pace through the first quarter of 2020,” said Goss.

Minnesota: Minnesota’s overall index hit 51.3 in October, compared with 48.4 in September. Index components were new orders at 50.2, production or sales at 58.4, delivery lead time at 48.7, inventories at 48.9, and employment at 50.3. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to move into positive territory but below an annualized pace of 1%, and annualized hourly wage growth to slow to a 3.5%-4% range through the first quarter of 2020,” he said.

Missouri: The overall index for Missouri advanced to 53.6 last month from September’s 49.2. Index components were new orders at 59.6, production or sales at 57.8, delivery lead time at 49.3, inventories at 50.0 and employment at 51.4. “I expect job growth to accelerate but remain below an annualized rate of 1.5%, and hourly wage growth to rise significantly to an annualized range of 3.5%-4% through the first quarter of 2020,” Goss said.

Nebraska: Nebraska’s overall index climbed to 53.7 from September’s 50.6. Index components were new orders at 59.7, production or sales at 57.7, delivery lead time at 49.3, inventories at 50.0 and employment at 51.5. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to rise slightly and hourly wage growth to expand at a higher annualized pace of 3%-4% through the first quarter of 2020,” he said.

North Dakota: The overall index for North Dakota slipped below growth neutral to hit 49.7 in October, compared with 50.1 in September. Index components were new orders at 50.3, production or sales at 58.4, delivery lead time at 45.8, employment at 48.7 and inventories at 45.4. North Dakota’s manufacturing sector has boosted jobs by 1.1% over the past 12 months and hourly wages by 6%. “I expect job growth to slow but remain positive, and annualized hourly wage growth to decline to less than 4% through the first quarter of 2020,” Goss said.

Oklahoma: Oklahoma’s overall index has fallen below growth neutral for two of the last three months. The index hit 48.7 last month, compared with 50.1 in September. Index components were new orders at 52.7, production or sales at 58.4, delivery lead time at 42.3, inventories at 44.5 and employment at 45.6. The state’s manufacturing sector has lost 1.5% of its employment over the past 12 months. “I expect job growth to move into positive territory but remain below 1% annualized, and hourly wage growth to continue at its current solid pace through the first quarter of 2020,” said Goss.

South Dakota: The overall index for South Dakota jumped to 52.6 in October from 47.8 in September. Index components were new orders at 57.3, production or sales at 58.6, delivery lead time at 48.6, inventories at 48.7 and employment at 50.1. The state’s manufacturing sector has boosted jobs by 3.6% over the past 12 months and hourly wages by 3.2%. “I expect job growth to slow but remain positive, and hourly wage growth to continue at its current solid pace through the first quarter of 2020,” he said.