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Cox Automotive June Forecast: Tight Inventory, High Prices Slow New-Vehicle Sales

June 28, 2021 GMT

ATLANTA, June 28, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- June U.S. new-vehicle sales are expected to showcase a market still well above last year’s levels but one that is slowing after a frenzied spring buying season. Vehicle sales in June are forecast by Cox Automotive to fall to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.4 million, up from last year’s 13.0 million but down from May’s 17.0 million pace.

June is expected to mark the second consecutive month of slowing sales after the market hit a red-hot, post-pandemic peak in April. The April sales pace of 18.8 million was among the strongest sales months in history, but the frenzy is forecast to slow as inventory constraints are now pulling the market back down to earth.

Sales volume in June is predicted to show a 24% gain over last year, a solid result but lower than the monthly gains seen earlier this spring. Volume is expected to decline nearly 200,000 units from May, a drop driven in part by one less selling day and no big holiday weekends to drive more sales.

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“While new-vehicle sales volume in the first half of 2021 is healthy—and on par with the first half of 2019—the market could be stronger if not for the lack of available supply,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, Cox Automotive. “Concern about the supply situation really cannot be overstated as we are in untested territory for the market.”

According to a Cox Automotive analysis of vAuto Available Inventory data, new-vehicle inventory was historically low at the beginning of June, running 43% behind levels for the same period in 2020 and 54% below the same timeframe in 2019.

Production halts last spring due to COVID-19 left the industry with limited inventory to start 2021. Since then, supply chain disruptions have made the issue worse. While not all manufacturers are dealing with the same level of supply constraint, nearly all have lower-than-normal supply. Tight supply, in turn, has allowed manufacturers to reduce incentives, which means buyers will have a harder time making a more favorable deal. According to a recent analysis by Kelley Blue Book, the average new-vehicle incentive has dropped to a near-10-year low.

June 2021 Sales Forecast Highlights

  • New light-vehicle sales are forecast to reach 1.35 million units, up nearly 24% higher compared to June 2020.
  • Sales volume is expected to fall nearly 200,000 compared to May, or 12.7%.
  • The sales pace of 16.4 million is forecast to be well above last year’s COVID-19 impacted 13.0 million level, but a drop from May’s strong 17.0 million pace.

June 2021 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

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Sales Forecast1

Market Share


Segment

Jun-21

Jun-20

May-21

YOY%

MOM%

Jun-21

May-21

MOM


Mid-Size Car

100,000

70,004

110,104

42.8%

-9.2%

7.2%

6.9%

0.3%


Compact Car

125,000

83,159

138,228

50.3%

-9.6%

9.0%

8.7%

0.3%


Compact SUV/Crossover

220,000

197,089

258,155

11.6%

-14.8%

15.9%

16.3%

-0.4%


Full-Size Pickup Truck

170,000

171,746

203,730

-1.0%

-16.6%

12.3%

12.8%

-0.6%


Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

230,000

190,656

268,292

20.6%

-14.3%

16.6%

16.9%

-0.3%


Grand Total2

1,385,000

1,117,654

1,585,989

23.9%

-12.7%






1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data

2 Total includes segments not shown

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

First Half 2021 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast


Q2 2019

Q2 2020

Q2 2021

Versus
2019

Versus
2020


H1 2019

H1 2020

H1 2021

Versus
2019

Versus
2020


H1 2019
Share

H1 2020
Share

H1 2021
Share


GM

744,316

489,264

700,978

-5.8%

43.3%


1,409,321

1,105,696

1,340,384

-4.9%

21.2%


16.7%

17.1%

15.9%


Toyota

608,392

398,029

698,838

14.9%

75.6%


1,152,108

893,776

1,301,904

13.0%

45.7%


13.7%

13.8%

15.5%


Ford

644,498

432,317

519,007

-19.5%

20.1%


1,231,454

946,931

1,036,718

-15.8%

9.5%


14.6%

14.7%

12.3%


Stellantis

597,685

367,086

504,683

-15.6%

37.5%


1,096,040

813,854

974,334

-11.1%

19.7%


13.0%

12.6%

11.6%


Honda

407,208

293,502

483,758

18.8%

64.8%


776,995

592,286

830,849

6.9%

40.3%


9.2%

9.2%

9.9%


Hyundai

359,413

270,699

471,769

31.3%

74.3%


648,111

543,474

806,671

24.5%

48.4%


7.7%

8.4%

9.6%


Nissan/Mits

380,215

189,525

327,280

-13.9%

72.7%


788,136

482,694

641,064

-18.7%

32.8%


9.3%

7.5%

7.6%


Volkswagen

167,294

116,968

208,896

24.9%

78.6%


316,305

245,404

371,965

17.6%

51.6%


3.8%

3.8%

4.4%


Subaru

182,772

136,523

171,192

-6.3%

25.4%


339,526

267,114

331,618

-2.3%

24.1%


4.0%

4.1%

3.9%


Mazda

67,722

61,199

106,396

57.1%

73.9%


138,555

128,869

189,654

36.9%

47.2%


1.6%

2.0%

2.3%


BMW

91,230

56,245

103,278

13.2%

83.6%


174,023

120,937

180,996

4.0%

49.7%


2.1%

1.9%

2.1%


Daimler

84,774

70,221

78,231

-7.7%

11.4%


163,421

145,487

168,146

2.9%

15.6%


1.9%

2.3%

2.0%


Telsa

53,975

25,500

65,880

22.1%

158.4%


83,875

81,700

135,180

61.2%

65.5%


1.0%

1.3%

1.6%


Volvo

28,062

23,770

35,207

25.5%

48.1%


50,120

43,255

62,446

24.6%

44.4%


0.6%

0.7%

0.7%


Tata

27,155

18,850

25,849

-4.8%

37.1%


62,405

44,279

53,799

-13.8%

21.5%


0.7%

0.7%

0.6%


Nation

4,444,711

2,949,698

4,501,243

1.3%

52.6%


8,430,395

6,455,756

8,425,729

-0.1%

30.5%


100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling, owning and using vehicles easier for everyone. The global company’s more than 27,000 team members and family of brands, including Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Dickinson Fleet Services, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five continents and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with annual revenues of nearly $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com

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SOURCE Cox Automotive