New China Property Report from Real Estate Foresight for October 2020
HONG KONG, CHINA / ACCESSWIRE / November 9, 2020 / Real Estate Foresight (REF), a Hong Kong-based independent research firm focused on China housing markets and data centers has published a new monthly China Property report for October 2020.
China Property report is one of Real Estate Foresight’s flagship reports published since 2012. It provides granular and data-driven insights into the Chinese housing market - one of the most important sectors in China - at a ‘macro-property’ level.
From the summary:
“At an aggregate level, we continue to expect the volume growth to turn positive for 2020, and price growth to slow down further. Most important to watch next weeks will be any changes to major developers’ strategies in the light of the ‘three red lines,’ and for the longer term, any new signals from the outcomes of the Fifth Plenum. Beneath the aggregate figures, the ‘new infrastructure’ policy push will have significant indirect impact on residential sector in select cities like Huizhou, Nantong, or Langfang.”
Real Estate Foresight’s main scenario from February 4, 2020 (published in the note to clients), on how Covid-19 outbreak would play out for China housing markets, captured well the dynamics of the markets vs. what actually has happened - it read:
“In summary: our best guess is a ‘Q1 market shutdown’ - a big non-structural short-term drop in volumes, flat prices in Q1, volumes bounce-back in Q2 but the return to normal or pre-WARS (outside of Wuhan / some cities) will also mean further deleveraging and a greater slowdown. Developers would trade prices for volumes on financial pressures, and 2020 might end up with similar volumes to 2019, but prices likely to slow down sharply or decline. SARS serves as a useful comparison but the point-in-cycle today is completely different from 2003. The real cushion for the property market remains the relatively low land supply.”
China Property reports are available to clients on a subscription basis, along with a range of other services from Real Estate Foresight.
Real Estate Foresight’s monthly notes with select market insights and REF updates: join the distribution list.
Linkedin: Robert Ciemniak - CEO & Chief Analyst
Ms. Lijun Cao
+852 817 01 421
SOURCE: Real Estate Foresight Ltd
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