A Robust U.S. Economy Through 2021 and Beyond, with Slower Recovery Abroad, is Predicted by Panel at Quinnipiac University’s Virtual GAME X Forum
HAMDEN, Conn., March 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The “Global Markets and Investment Strategies” panel on the first day of Quinnipiac University’s 10th Global Asset Management Education (GAME) Forum was overwhelmingly bullish on the U.S. investment outlook, but said that global recovery will take a little longer. The rapid vaccine rollout gives the U.S. an edge, the panelists said.
In the first half of 2021, we will see “the best part of the business cycle,” said Jimmy C. Chang, chief investment officer at the Rockefeller Global Family Office. “It’s a very bullish environment, combining the unleashing of pent-up demand with massive stimulus amounts, plus the Fed staying accommodational. But the second half is trickier.”
The panelists were generally positive about emerging markets. “That’s where the growth will happen,” said Eric Nierenberg, chief strategy officer at the Massachusetts-based pension fund MassPRIM. But investments in those markets, and in Europe, are complicated by slower COVID recovery. Meanwhile, Nierenberg said, “The U.S. economy is hot—perhaps too hot.”
David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, whose enthusiasm for GAME got him into the forum’s hall of fame this year, believes that the $1.9 trillion Biden administration stimulus will lead to huge increases in consumer spending by lower- and middle-income households, not as well-rewarded in previous efforts. “If given extra cash, they will spend it, and demand for goods will surge,” he said.
Liz Ann Sonders, senior vice president and chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., noted that the “rotational nature of the market”—with sectors showing strength, but then quickly slumping—is likely to continue. “Just when you think there’s an established trend, the next day we are seeing a complete mirror image,” she said.
Chang cited inflation as the number one risk factor, but added that markets could be affected by rises in capital gains and the corporate tax rate. Nierenberg said inflation trends could lead to the Fed “putting on the brakes really hard.” And Sonders noted that that the Fed’s primarily role is protecting the financial system, not the markets per se. “The thinking that the Fed has our backs might be fallacy,” she said.
The virtual GAME conference drew nearly 1,700 participants from 146 colleges. There are 62 speakers on 17 panels representing 48 companies.
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SOURCE Quinnipiac University